Dear Santosh. Thank you for your question.

  1. As we emphatically say in the paper, these numbers are at best underestimates. Data are surpassing model. You should also look at the dotted line as that is the upper CI, capturing uncertainty in our predictions. We ran the model with new data up to March 21 and the estimates increased substantially as expected. We will release an online tracker with daily updates to our projections in the next few days. Actively working on it.
  2. Yes, Health officials are taking right decisions to act early.
  3. We do talk about health care capacity. One suggestion is to create mobile testing labs, and convert residence halls or other empty facilities into temporary COVID-19 care centers. India is a different country than China, Italy or USA, so we have to be creative with designing our interventions as well as building healthcare capacity. Thank you for this important point. Best, Bhramar

An interdisciplinary group of scholars and data scientists who use of data and modeling to generate timely reports and recommendations about COVID-19 in India

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